Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.