From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.