Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Initiative Constitutes a Benefit to Russia's Leader

At first, Trump seemed to embrace a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "serious repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted hindering ceasefire talks, he finally imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, with his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's plan would essentially benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the initiative effectively weaken that very autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate background, Trump seems to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, as if giving Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While freezing in place the presently separated regions of these areas, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a clear path to the capital should he subsequently choose to renew the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate additional conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their existing large number soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every Nazi belief system and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we trust Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the proposal threatens a "strong joint defense action" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just block the nation Nato membership but also prevent member states from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Concern

Another supplementary accord according to sources would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to act through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not